Resilience Assessment for the Northern Sea Route Based on a Fuzzy Bayesian Network

The safety level of the northern sea route (NSR) is a common concern for related stakeholders. To address risks triggered by disruptions initiating from harsh environment and human factors, comprehensive framework proposed based on perspective resilience. Notably, resilience NSR decomposed into three capacities, namely, absorptive capacity, adaptive restorative capacity. Moreover, to are identified. Then, Bayesian network (BN) model established quantify resilience, prior probabilities parent nodes conditional probability table obtained fuzzy theory expert elicitation. Finally, developed networkBN simulated analyze back propagation, sensitivity analysis, information entropy analysis. general interpretation these analyses indicates that emergency response, ice-breaking rescue anti-pollution facilities critical factors contribute NSR. Good knowledge capacity most effective way reduce uncertainty present study provides understand issues associated with NSR, which can be seen as main innovation this work.